|The second wave is here
|Everyone has been worrying about the possibility of a second
wave that comes with re-opening. In the first week in June, it is
here, with Arizona leading the way. AZ will probably hit the
maximum case count in NY within 2 weeks. In NY, they
experienced sever stress to their health care system. In AZ
there are already early reports of problems.
The map shows the average case count over the last 2 weeks,
with the 28 states with rising infections in red. There are 8 more
states with rising infections then just 1 week ago. The only
states that are falling are the ones that had sever infections in
The reality of the second wave can be seen in the case count.
Using NY and TX as benchmarks, I added 13 states with rising
counts. AZ has a high infection level and is growing rapidly,FL
is rising to meet and but will match NY this week. TX and OR
are lower but rising to the level of NY in a few weeks. There is
no question that the second wave is here.
All these states are showing similar exponential growth, around
2 infections per person.
Rising states have outvoted the falling ones, the second wave
On 6/14/20 this is REALLY not good. Austin has suddenly
exploded ahead (not in a good way) of Texas. Cases have
doubled in a week, which will likely continue if nothing changes.
These numbers are similar to Arizona, where hospital loads are
getting close to critical. The growth of the infection in Austin
represents an infections per person (Ipp) of over2, which
suggests that in the hot spots there is very little physical
isolation, and that the case count is going to escalate even
In the last week, in round numbers, in Austin have roughly and
400 total Covid beds. The hospitalization numbers are in line
with the NY experience in the first wave. The hospital
admissions track the cases throughout the pandemic,
confirming that the case count is not an artifact the depends on
Using the Texas numbers for Hospitalization Admissions and
available beds, Austin and Texas will be filled to capacity at a
case load of 889 cases/d/M, identical to NY max. If nothing
changes we will hit that number in mid July.
By end of July the cases and hospitalizations in Austin had
started to drop, having skirted with disaster.
In Texas, the major cities have similar infection profiles. There a
few other counties with prisons that have very high cases per
million residents. Hildago county in particular crossed the 1000
cases/d/M threshold and had to introduce triage to deal with